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SHAPE Lab

Simulation of Hazards, AI, People & Engineering Decisions

Posts

Congratulations to Dr. Nasimeh Rashidi!

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Nasimeh Rashidi successfully defended her PhD dissertation, “Advancing Wildfire Resilience through Improved Understanding of Fuels, Institutions, and Homeowner Decisions.” Congratulations, Dr. Rashidi!

Our Wildfire Risk Assessment Research Featured in ASCE Civil Engineering Source

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Our computational framework for efficient probabilistic wildfire risk assessment was featured in ASCE Civil Engineering Source. The practitioner-oriented article highlights how the framework can support wildfire preparedness, mitigation, and resource-allocation decisions. Read the full article here.

Expert Systems with Applications Paper

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Our paper, “From Free-Riding to Collective Action in Wildfire Mitigation: The Role of Policy Incentives,” has been published in Expert Systems with Applications. Please find the full paper here.

Congratulations to Our Award-Winning Students!

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Congratulations to Nasim Rashidi, recipient of the 2026 John F. Orsborn Outstanding Graduate Student Award, and to Abdel-Aziz Sanad, recipient of the 2026 Howard & Hermina Hallgarth Scholarship!

Nasim’s Three-Minute Thesis Award

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Congratulations to Nasim Rashidi for winning 2nd place in the Three-Minute Thesis competition for her presentation, “Satellite Imagery-Based Dynamic Fuel Mapping for Wildfire Risk Assessment.”

Engineering Structures Paper

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Our paper, “Surrogate-Based Fragility Modeling Framework for System-Level Wind Damage Assessment of Transmission Towers,” has been published in Engineering Structures. Please find the full paper here.

ASCE-ASME Journal Paper

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Our paper, “Cluster-Based Active-Learning Scenario Reduction Framework for Probabilistic Wildfire Risk Assessment,” has been published in the ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems. Please find the full paper here.

Successful Completion of Vishnu’s PhD Defense

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Congratulations to Dr. Vishnupriya Jonnalagadda, for completing her Ph.D. defense on “Advances in Uncertainty Analysis for Infrastructure Risk and Resilience Assessment.”

Safety Science Paper

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Our paper, “Analyzing Wildfire Evacuation Dynamics with Agent-Based Modeling in Damaged Road Networks,” has been published in Safety Science. Please find the full paper here.

New NSF Project

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Dr. Lee has been awarded a new $1M research grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF) to lead a project on wildfire-resilient power grid infrastructure planning that incorporates the views and perspectives of communities.

Fire Technology Paper

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Our paper, “Understanding Evacuation Behavior During Wildfires: Exploring Key Factors Affecting Evacuee Behaviors and Developing Predictive Models for Decision-Making,” has been published in Fire Technology. Please find the full paper here.

Abdel’s VCEA Student Excellence Award

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Abdel was honored with the VCEA Student Excellence Award in recognition of his exceptional work as a teaching assistant. Congratulations, Abdel!

Vishnu’s Prestigious Awards

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Vishnu has been honored with the prestigious 2024 WSU Chancellor’s Award for Leadership and the WSU Graduate School’s Worthy, DePauw and Wang Service Leadership Award, recognizing her exceptional leadership. Congratulations, Vishnu!

Natural Hazards Paper

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Published:

Our paper, “Quantifying the Role of Insurance in Tornado-Impacted Community Recovery: A Survey and Simulation-Based Approach,” has been published in Natural Hazards. Please find the full paper here.

portfolio

Human Decision-Making & Behavior

Understanding individual, community, and institutional decision-making under natural hazard risk using agent-based, game-theoretic, and AI-driven models.

publications

Ethical Discounting for Civil Infrastructure Decisions Extending over Multiple Generations

Published in Structural Safety, 2015

This study develops an intergenerational discounting method for civil infrastructure with multigenerational service periods that promotes equitable risk sharing between current and future generations.

Recommended citation: Lee, J.Y. and Ellingwood, B.R. (2015). "Ethical Discounting for Civil Infrastructure Decisions Extending over Multiple Generations." Structural Safety, 57, 43-52.
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Life Cycle Performance Goals for Civil Infrastructure: Intergenerational Risk-Informed Decisions

Published in Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2016

This study proposes an intergenerational risk-informed approach for establishing life-cycle performance goals for long-lived civil infrastructure while accounting for time-dependent reliability, sustainability, and equitable risk sharing.

Recommended citation: Ellingwood, B.R. and Lee, J.Y. (2016). "Life Cycle Performance Goals for Civil Infrastructure: Intergenerational Risk-Informed Decisions." Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 12(7), 822-829.
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Managing Risks to Civil Infrastructure due to Natural Hazards: Communicating Long-Term Risks due to Climate Change

Published in Risk Analysis of Natural Hazards: Interdisciplinary Challenges and Integrated Solutions (Springer), 2016

This book chapter examines key considerations for assessing and communicating long-term natural-hazard risks to multigenerational civil infrastructure under a changing climate.

Recommended citation: Ellingwood, B.R. and Lee, J.Y. (2016). "Managing Risks to Civil Infrastructure due to Natural Hazards: Communicating Long-Term Risks due to Climate Change." In Risk Analysis of Natural Hazards: Interdisciplinary Challenges and Integrated Solutions, pp. 97-112. Springer, ISBN 978-3-319-22126-7.
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A Decision Model for Intergenerational Life-Cycle Risk Assessment of Civil Infrastructure Exposed to Hurricanes under Climate Change

Published in Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2017

This study develops an intergenerational life-cycle risk assessment framework for hurricane-exposed civil infrastructure that accounts for climate-driven nonstationary hazards and the values of future generations through intergenerational discounting.

Recommended citation: Lee, J.Y. and Ellingwood, B.R. (2017). "A Decision Model for Intergenerational Life-Cycle Risk Assessment of Civil Infrastructure Exposed to Hurricanes under Climate Change." Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 159, 100-107.
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Adaptive Decision Framework for Civil Infrastructure Exposed to Evolving Risks

Published in Procedia Engineering, 2018

This study develops an adaptive decision-making framework for civil infrastructure exposed to evolving risks, enabling continuous risk reassessment and flexible management strategies.

Recommended citation: Lee, J.Y., Burton, H.V., and Lallemant, D. (2018). "Adaptive Decision Framework for Civil Infrastructure Exposed to Evolving Risks." Procedia Engineering, 212, 435-442.
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Adaptive Decision-Making for Civil Infrastructure Systems and Communities Exposed to Evolving Risks

Published in Structural Safety, 2018

This study develops an adaptive decision-making framework that uses sequential Bayesian updating to continually reassess evolving risks and improve the life-cycle resilience of infrastructure systems and communities.

Recommended citation: Lee, J.Y., Burton, H.V., and Lallemant, D. (2018). "Adaptive Decision-Making for Civil Infrastructure Systems and Communities Exposed to Evolving Risks." Structural Safety, 75, 1-12.
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Multi-Objective Performance-Based Design Optimization of a Controlled Rocking Steel Braced Frame System

Published in Resilient Structures and Infrastructure (Springer), 2019

This study develops a multi-objective performance-based design optimization framework for controlled rocking steel braced frames that minimizes initial construction costs and earthquake-induced economic and environmental impacts.

Recommended citation: Burton, H.V., Lee, J.Y., Moradi, S., and Dastmalchi, S. (2019). "Multi-Objective Performance-Based Design Optimization of a Controlled Rocking Steel Braced Frame System." Resilient Structures and Infrastructure, pp. 243-268.
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Effect of Catastrophe Insurance on Disaster-Impacted Community: Quantitative Framework and Case Studies

Published in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2020

This study develops a two-phase quantitative framework linking homeowners’ pre-disaster insurance decisions to post-disaster financial delays, building recovery, and community resilience.

Recommended citation: Zhao, J., Lee, J.Y., Li, Y., and Yin, Y-J. (2020). "Effect of Catastrophe Insurance on Disaster-Impacted Community: Quantitative Framework and Case Studies." International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 43, 101387.
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Hindcasting the Functional Loss and Restoration of the Napa Water System Following the 2014 Earthquake Using Discrete-Event Simulation

Published in ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2020

This study develops a discrete-event simulation model to quantify post-earthquake damage, functional loss, and restoration of water-distribution systems while accounting for inspection, repair, resource constraints, and water availability.

Recommended citation: Tomar, A., Burton, H.V., Mosleh, A., and Lee, J.Y. (2020). "Hindcasting the Functional Loss and Restoration of the Napa Water System Following the 2014 Earthquake Using Discrete-Event Simulation." ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 26(4), 04020035.
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System Reliability Analysis of the Scoliosis Disorder

Published in BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders, 2020

This study develops a probabilistic system-reliability framework to compare normal and scoliotic spines and proposes a target reliability index for evaluating scoliosis treatments.

Recommended citation: Nouri, F., Ghasemi, S.H., and Lee, J.Y. (2020). "System Reliability Analysis of the Scoliosis Disorder." BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders, 21(1), 1-12.
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Measuring Instantaneous Resilience of a Highway Bridge Subjected to Earthquake Events

Published in Transportation Research Record, 2021

This study develops a computationally efficient instantaneous-resilience metric that combines bridge robustness and structural redundancy to quantify a highway bridge’s capacity immediately after an earthquake.

Recommended citation: Ghasemi, S.H. and Lee, J.Y. (2021). "Measuring Instantaneous Resilience of a Highway Bridge Subjected to Earthquake Events." Transportation Research Record, 2675(9), 1681-1692.
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Seismic Loss Analysis of Buildings with Post-Tensioned Cross-Laminated Timber Walls

Published in Earthquake Spectra, 2021

This study applies the FEMA P-58 methodology to quantify earthquake-induced nonstructural repair costs for low- and mid-rise buildings with post-tensioned cross-laminated timber rocking walls.

Recommended citation: Wilson, A.W., Phillips, A.R., Motter, C.J., Lee, J.Y., and Dolan, J.D. (2021). "Seismic Loss Analysis of Buildings with Post-Tensioned Cross-Laminated Timber Walls." Earthquake Spectra, 37(1), 324-345.
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Reliability-Based Indicator for Post-Earthquake Traffic Flow Capacity of a Highway Bridge

Published in Structural Safety, 2021

This study develops a reliability-based indicator to quantify the allowable traffic-flow capacity of highway bridges after earthquakes while accounting for structural damage and uncertainty.

Recommended citation: Ghasemi, S.H. and Lee, J.Y. (2021). "Reliability-Based Indicator for Post-Earthquake Traffic Flow Capacity of a Highway Bridge." Structural Safety, 89, 102039.
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State-of-the-Art Reliability Analysis of Structural Drift Control Corresponding to the Critical Excitations

Published in Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 2022

This study proposes a new reliability-based design criterion to control interstory drift under seismic loading, established through analysis of several steel frame structures.

Recommended citation: Soltani, M.H., Ghasemi, S.H., Soltani, A., Lee, J.Y., Nowak, A.S., and Jalilikhani, M. (2022). "State-of-the-Art Reliability Analysis of Structural Drift Control Corresponding to the Critical Excitations." Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 26(7), 3300-3316.
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Effect of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles on Supply Chain Performance

Published in Transportation Research Record, 2022

This study develops a simulation framework to quantify how connected and autonomous vehicle adoption affects supply-chain travel time, greenhouse gas emissions, and cost.

Recommended citation: Zhao, J. and Lee, J.Y. (2022). "Effect of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles on Supply Chain Performance." Transportation Research Record, 2677(3), 402-424.
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Understanding Homeowner Proactive Actions for Managing Wildfire Risks

Published in Natural Hazards, 2022

This study develops survey-based regression models to identify factors influencing homeowners’ wildfire mitigation and insurance decisions and evaluates how these actions affect housing recovery.

Recommended citation: Lee, J.Y., Ma, F., and Li, Y. (2022). "Understanding Homeowner Proactive Actions for Managing Wildfire Risks." Natural Hazards, 114(2), 1525-1547.
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Probabilistic Wildfire Risk Assessment Methodology and Evaluation of a Supply Chain Network

Published in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2022

This study develops a probabilistic framework to quantify wildfire risk to supply-chain networks by modeling fire ignition and growth, component damage, and resulting network-level performance losses.

Recommended citation: Ma, F., Lee, J.Y., Camenzind, D., and Wolcott, M.P. (2022). "Probabilistic Wildfire Risk Assessment Methodology and Evaluation of a Supply Chain Network." International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 82, 103340.
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Multi-Component Resilience Assessment Framework for a Supply Chain System

Published in Sustainability, 2023

This study develops a quantitative, multi-component framework that assesses long-term supply-chain resilience by accounting for hazard-induced losses, non-hazard disruptions, and opportunity-driven gains.

Recommended citation: Zhao, J., Lee, J.Y., Camenzind, D., Wolcott, M.P., Lewis, K.C., and Gillham, O. (2023). "Multi-Component Resilience Assessment Framework for a Supply Chain System." Sustainability, 15(7), 6197.
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Quantification and Reduction of Uncertainty in Seismic Resilience Assessment for a Roadway Network

Published in Infrastructures, 2023

This study develops a dynamic Bayesian network–based model to quantify uncertainty in seismic resilience assessments of large-scale roadway networks and evaluate how inspection and monitoring reduce that uncertainty.

Recommended citation: Jonnalagadda, V., Lee, J.Y., Zhao, J., and Ghasemi, S.H. (2023). "Quantification and Reduction of Uncertainty in Seismic Resilience Assessment for a Roadway Network." Infrastructures, 8(9), 128.
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Understanding Tornadic Wind Effects on Manufactured or Mobile Homes through High-Fidelity CFD Simulations

Published in Journal of Structural Engineering, 2023

This study uses high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics simulations to quantify tornado-induced wind loads on manufactured and mobile homes and assess the limitations of straight-line wind-based design.

Recommended citation: Zhao, Y., Yan, G., Dang, J., van de Lindt, J., Lee, J.Y., LaDue, D.S., and Shivers-Williams, C.A. (2023). "Understanding Tornadic Wind Effects on Manufactured or Mobile Homes through High-Fidelity CFD Simulations." Journal of Structural Engineering, 149(12), 04023179.
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Effects of Climate Change on Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructure Systems: Safety, Reliability, and Risk

Published in American Society of Civil Engineers, 2024

This book presents and explores efforts to implement criteria, techniques, and tools for the life-cycle design, assessment, maintenance, and management of civil structures and infrastructure systems under climate change.

Recommended citation: Biondini, F., Lounis, Z., Ghosn, M., et al. (2024). "Effects of Climate Change on Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructure Systems: Safety, Reliability, and Risk." American Society of Civil Engineers, ISBN 9780784485804.
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Quantifying the Role of Homeowners and Flood Insurance in Tornado-Impacted Community Resilience: A Survey and Simulation-Based Approach

Published in Natural Hazards, 2024

This study develops a survey-informed simulation framework to quantify how homeowners and flood insurance influence housing recovery and community resilience after tornadoes.

Recommended citation: Zhao, J., Lee, J.Y., Yan, G., and Ma, F. (2024). "Quantifying the Role of Homeowners and Flood Insurance in Tornado-Impacted Community Resilience: A Survey and Simulation-Based Approach." Natural Hazards, 120(8), 7435-7459.
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A New Generation of DCR by Introducing Reliability-Survivability Safety Measure

Published in Structures, 2024

This study develops a vector-based demand-capacity ratio framework that integrates structural reliability and survivability to provide a probabilistic measure of structural safety.

Recommended citation: Ghasemi, S.H., Lee, J.Y., and Nowak, A.S. (2024). "A New Generation of DCR by Introducing Reliability-Survivability Safety Measure." Structures, 62, 106154.
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Structural Reliability Guidance in ASCE 7-22: Principles and Methods

Published in American Society of Civil Engineers, 2025

This book guides structural engineers through the history and concepts behind the development of probability-based limit state design (PBLSD) underlying ASCE 7-22.

Recommended citation: McAllister, T., Zheng, R., and Lee, J.Y. (2025). "Structural Reliability Guidance in ASCE 7-22: Principles and Methods." American Society of Civil Engineers, ISBN: 9780784486337.
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Understanding Evacuation Behavior During Wildfires: Exploring Key Factors Affecting Evacuee Behaviors and Developing Predictive Models for Decision-Making

Published in Fire Technology, 2025

This study develops data-driven predictive models of individual wildfire evacuation decisions using survey data and machine-learning algorithms.

Recommended citation: Ma, F. and Lee, J.Y. (2025). "Understanding Evacuation Behavior During Wildfires: Exploring Key Factors Affecting Evacuee Behaviors and Developing Predictive Models for Decision-Making." Fire Technology, 61(4), 2285-2326.
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Analyzing Wildfire Evacuation Dynamics with Agent-Based Modeling in Damaged Road Networks

Published in Safety Science, 2025

This study develops an integrated agent-based modeling framework to analyze wildfire evacuation dynamics while accounting for fire propagation, evacuee behavior, and fire-induced damage to road networks.

Recommended citation: Ma, F. and Lee, J.Y. (2025). "Analyzing Wildfire Evacuation Dynamics with Agent-Based Modeling in Damaged Road Networks." Safety Science, 187, 106835.
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From Free-Riding to Collective Action in Wildfire Mitigation: The Role of Policy Incentives

Published in Expert Systems with Applications, 2026

This study develops a game-theoretic model showing how well-designed subsidies and early participation can shift homeowners from free-riding to collective wildfire mitigation.

Recommended citation: Wang, Z-J. and Lee, J.Y. (2026). "From free-riding to collective action in wildfire mitigation: the role of policy incentives." Expert Systems with Applications, 331, Part B, 1329000.
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Cluster-Based Active-Learning Scenario Reduction Framework for Probabilistic Wildfire Risk Assessment

Published in ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 2026

The paper develops a cluster-based active-learning framework that reduces thousands of wildfire scenarios to a representative subset, making probabilistic risk assessment faster while preserving accuracy.

Recommended citation: Jonnalagadda, V., Lee, J.Y., and Sanad, A-A. (2026). "Cluster-Based Active-Learning Scenario Reduction Framework for Probabilistic Wildfire Risk Assessment." ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 12(2), 04026016.
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Surrogate-Based Fragility Modeling Framework for System-Level Wind Damage Assessment of Transmission Towers

Published in Engineering Structures, 2026

This study develops a generalized surrogate wind fragility modeling framework for transmission towers applicable to a wide range of transmission tower designs and geographic locations across the United States.

Recommended citation: Sanad, A-A. and Lee, J.Y. (2026). "Surrogate-based fragility modeling framework for system-level wind damage assessment of transmission towers." Engineering Structures, 358, 122642.
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